DISQUS

Eric · 1 year ago

I know this may be a little too much, but have you tried doing this for other pitchers that are considered aces.... example, take Cole Hamels rookie year, and see what numbers you get... obviously doing his numbers now is pointless, hes a #1 starter on a championship team

theres always one factor that can never be put into numbers and thats luck... any great prospect can crash and any no name prospect can flourish

PWHjort · 1 year ago

Eric, I certainly could try to predict a pitchers' future performance using this or many other techniques. It wouldn't work 100% of the time and since we'll never know until the end of a pitchers' career weather or not it is a fluke, it isn't practical to do so. Otherwise, everyone would be doing it. Like you said, since Cole Hamels has proven that he can produce numbers consistent with those his rookie year, I could almost certainly predict the outcome of that study. There are a few pitchers in the MLB that benefit from an abnormally low BABIP or from stranding a large number of baserunners. It is generally agreed in the Sabermetric community that these abnormal rates make the pitchers' actual numbers unsustainable and therefore at some point their numbers will deteriorate. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Justin Duchscherer are two such pitchers. The purpose of this study was to determine weather or not Campillo and Jurrjens fall into this category or they're "for real", so to speak. I focused on these two only in order to answer that question. Do you have a question of your own you'd like me to answer? If so, don't hesitate to email me at PWHjort@gmail.com and I'll do my best to try and answer it with a blog post.

-PWHjort